中国：永不破裂的泡沫

书籍信息

Author: Thomas Orlik
Published: 6 July 2022
Online ISBN: 9780197710012
Print ISBN: 9780197598610
Publisher: Oxford University Press
https://academic.oup.com/book/43774

本书下载链接（有能力的还是建议去支持正版）

蓝奏云下载链接：https://www.lanzouq.com/i7Rj612q1rjc 密码:8fcb
我已经在Google Play上购买了正版电子书

封面 (Cover)

对《中国：永不破裂的泡沫》的赞誉

“奥利克（Thomas Orlik，本书作者，下同）用明澈的散文涵盖了复杂的辩论，并佐以他多年来在中国实地考察的轶事作为调剂。他的书可以作为中国现代经济史的入门读物，但最重要的是，他为中国能够避免未来的危机提出了一个强有力的反面案例。”
——西蒙·拉比诺维奇，《经济学人》亚洲经济编辑

"没有人比资深分析师托马斯·奥利克更有能力帮助我们理解和预测中国债务问题的结果。这本书罕见地结合了对这一复杂问题细节上的高度关注和清晰的风格，使其成为受教育者的有趣和高参与性读物。读者应该做好准备，在潜在的中国金融危机的曲折中狂奔。"
——史宗瀚(Victor Shih)，加州大学圣地亚哥分校中国与太平洋关系系何苗林讲座副教授

“奥利克从中国各地选取了生动的例子，讲述了中国经济过山车式发展的故事。奥利克解释到，北京不畏艰险，在四十年间经历了四个重要的经济周期。在清晰的写作风格和健康的幽默感的帮助下，他确定了中国如何在第五次中重塑其经济。”
——西莉亚·哈顿，BBC亚太编辑

“托马斯·奥利克的《中国：永不破裂的泡沫》对过去20年世界第二大经济体的债务积累提供了宝贵的历史概述。作者深厚的知识和敏锐的分析使该书对我们理解中国的国家资本主义金融体系和低效的资本配置做出了及时的贡献。”
——裴敏新(Minxin Pei)，《中国的裙带资本主义》作者

"奥利克冷静地审视了一下目前的中国，在有大量的债务、不良贷款、大白象工程和臭名昭著的鬼城的基础上，中国的经济是如何藐视所有持反对意见的人的。在《中国：永不破灭的泡沫》中，奥利克提供了一份政策工具清单，中国党内的技术官僚用来管理经济并防止或阻止硬着陆。西方央行行长和政治领导人通常无法获得这些工具。这本书思路清晰、可读性强，是少有的既能让非专业人士读懂，又能为深谙中国经济奥秘的人提供大量细节和数据的书。"
——郭怡广(Kaiser Kuo)，SupChina.com上的播客主持人

"一直以来，有些人预测中国经济是一个即将破裂的泡沫，但事实并非如此，这令那些人感到困惑。奥利克先生对这一问题进行了出色的解释。但他并不是一个睁眼说瞎话的人，而是带领读者了解所有的问题和风险，帮助我们理解政策制定者是如何维持局面的，同时明确最终危机的风险是真实存在的。"
——比尔·毕夏普，《中国主义》出版人

"奥利克用他渊博的知识和干练的智慧来解释中国显著增长背后的压力。得益于其作为记者和分析师报道中国和亚洲的经验，奥利克提供了清晰的比较例子——1980年代的日本、1990年代的韩国和美国灾难性的次贷危机，以此来说明中国决策者所做的决定。对于任何希望了解中国今天的选择的人来说，本书是一本易懂的入门书。"
——卢西·霍恩比，《金融时报》中国记者

目录

致谢
1. 树不可能长到天上去
2. 中国的债务山：借款人
3. 中国的债务山：贷款人
4. 中国的前两个经济周期
5. 中国的第三个经济周期和金融海啸的起源
6. 金融海啸中的中国经济
7. 习近平和中国第四个经济周期的开始
8. 无自爆的去杠杆化
9. 技术转移和贸易关税
10. 这一次不同吗？
11. 推演中国危机
12. 永远不晚
参考文献
索引

致谢

写一本书是不容易的，写一本关于中国的书则尤其如此。多年来，如果没有彭博社(Bloomberg)经济团队的同事、《华尔街时报》(The Wall Street Journal)新闻编辑室的同仁，以及斯通和麦卡锡办公室(The Stone & McCarthy office)的伙伴们的支持，我是不可能做到这一点的。在彭博社北京分部，我曾与菲尔丁·陈、万倩(Qian Wan)、贾斯汀·希门尼斯和阿兰·斯科特密切合作，受益于他们丰富的专业知识，以及深厚的幽默感。斯蒂芬妮·弗兰德斯和迈克尔·麦克多诺给了我更具灵活性的工作内容，让我可以在日常工作的同时推进一个写作项目。在《华尔街日报》，我很幸运，有安迪•布朗担任分社社长，鲍勃•戴维斯、齐礼闫(Liyan Qi)、比尔•卡泽尔、阿龙•巴克、埃丝特•冯和丁尼•麦克马洪担任经济专栏的合作者，邓肯•马文和卡洛斯•特哈达担任编辑，有机会为约什·钦的中国实时博客撰稿，并得到莉莉安·林的研究支持。在斯通和麦卡锡办公室工作时，我受益于洛根•赖特和大卫•怀尔德的智慧，事实证明，他们将热情和犬儒主义(cynicism)结合在一起，不得不说，这是在报道中国经济的十一年中维持正确观点的态度。

每个关注中国经济的人都从尼古拉斯·拉迪和巴里·诺顿的有洞察力的工作和对比观点中受益。他们对改革开放时期的分析记录是中国所有学生的必读书目，显著地影响了我的思考方式，也为本书的某些历史部分提供了材料。杰森·贝德福德比大多数人更深入地研究了中国的金融业，并慷慨地分享了他的一些想法。我也从其他的著作中学到了更多的东西，分别是杰米·拉什和舒畅(Chang Shu)的有关中国危机对世界其他地区影响的研究、大卫·屈的关于中国金融稳定方法的专业知识、丹·汉森的有关贸易战影响的分析。

国际货币基金组织在中国做了出色的工作；我大量阅读它们，并受益匪浅，同时我还与一些作者交谈。我也与中国人民银行、中国银行业监督管理委员会、中国证券监督管理委员会、中国社会科学院和国家统计局的官员交谈，让我了解到了官方的观点。并且，我在中国各地旅行，与当地官员、银行家、商人、房地产开发商、工人和农民会面，为本书添枝加叶，兼之使其更具有现实主义的色彩。

邱玮一(Weiyi Qiu)提供了专业的研究帮助，章曙彤(Cecilia Chang)在国有企业债务章节做出了贡献。牛津大学出版社的大卫·佩尔文在过程中给予了明智的建议，与迈希·费尔彻尔德一起对草稿进行了深入的评论。鲍勃·戴维斯和尼古拉斯·拉迪阅读了近乎最终的手稿，帮我避免了一些尴尬的错误，并提出了宝贵的建议，增强了关键点的行文。马旸(Damien Ma)为最后一章提供了宝贵的反馈。如果没有张阿姨在我和妻子工作时照顾我们的三个孩子，这本书是不可能完成的。我的女儿约瑟芬不会原谅我，如果我不承认她打出了这个标题。

我要感谢我的父亲克里斯托弗·奥利克，如果没有他不断地询问我何时会写另一本书，我可能不会再写一本书。我也要感谢我的母亲朱迪思·摩尔，她从未问过我是否会写另一本书，并让我以我的父亲作为我未来行为的榜样。最后，我最亏欠的是是我的妻子海伦娜，她比我更了解中国正在发生的事情，但还没有被说服写下来。

原文

Cover

PRAISE FOR CHINA: THE BUBBLE THAT NEVER POPS
“Orlik covers complex debates in crystal-clear prose, spiced up with anecdotes from his years on the ground in China. His book serves as a primer on China’s modern economic history, but, most importantly, lays out a strong contrarian case for why it can avoid a future crisis.” —Simon Rabinovitch, Asia economics editor, The Economist
“No one is better equipped to help us understand and to prognosticate the outcome of China’s debt problem than veteran analyst Tom Orlik. This book has a rare combination of intense focus on the details of this complex problem and a lucid style which makes it a fun and engaging read to the educated public. Readers should prepare themselves for a wild ride through the twists and turns of a potential Chinese financial crisis.” —Victor Shih, Ho Miu Lam Chair Associate Professor in China and Pacific Relations, UC San Diego
“Orlik plucks vivid examples from all over China to tell the story of the economy’s remarkable rollercoaster ride. Beijing has defied the odds to survive four momentous economic cycles in forty years, Orlik explains. Aided by clear writing style and a healthy dose of good humour, he determines how China might reinvent its economy for a fifth time.” —Celia Hatton, Asia Pacific Editor, BBC
“Thomas Orlik’s China: The Bubble that Never Pops provides a valuable historical overview of the build-up of debt in the world’s second-largest economy over the last two decades. The author’s deep knowledge and perceptive analysis make the book a timely contribution to our understanding of China’s state-capitalist financial system and inefficient allocation of capital.”—Minxin Pei, author of China’s Crony Capitalism
“Orlik takes a dispassionate look at how, despite massive debt, non-performing loans, white elephant projects, and infamous ghost cities, China’s economy has defied all the nay-sayers – at least for now. In China: The Bubble that Never Pops, Orlik offers an inventory of the policy tools – often unavailable to western central bankers and political leaders – that China’s Party technocrats have used to manage the economy and prevent or forestall hard landings. Lucid and highly readable, this is one of those rare books that manage to be accessible to non-specialists while still offering ample detail and data to those steeped in the arcana of the Chinese economy.”—Kaiser Kuo, host of The Sinica Podcast on SupChina.com
“Mr. Orlik does an excellent job of explaining why China’s economy keeps confounding those who have predicted for years that it is a bubble about to pop. But he is no wide-eyed naif, rather he walks readers through all the issues and risks and help us understand how policymakers keep things together, while making clear that the risk of an eventual crisis is real.” —Bill Bishop, Publisher, Sinocism
“Orlik musters his deep knowledge (and dry wit) to explain the stresses building beneath China’s remarkable growth. The author mines his experiences as journalist and analyst covering China and Asia to provide clear comparative examples – he deploys 1980s Japan, 1990s Korea, and the catastrophic sub-prime crisis in the US, to illuminate the decisions taken by Chinese policymakers. This book is an accessible primer for anyone who wishes to understand China’s choices today.”—Lucy Hornby, China correspondent, Financial Times

Contents

Acknowledgments
1.A Tree Cannot Grow to the Sky
2.China’s Debt Mountain: The Borrowers
3.China’s Debt Mountain: The Lenders
4.China’s First Two Cycles
5.China’s Third Cycle and the Origins of the Great Financial Crisis
6.China’s Economy in the Great Financial Crisis
7.Xi Jinping and the Start of China’s Fourth Cycle
8.Deleveraging without Self-Detonating
9.Technology Transfer and Trade Tariffs
10.This Time Is Different?
11.War-Gaming a China Crisis
12.It’s Never Too Late
Further Reading
Index

Acknowledgments

Writing a book is hard. Writing a book about China is harder. I couldn’t have done it without support over the years from colleagues on the economics team at Bloomberg, in the Wall Street Journal newsroom, and the Stone & McCarthy office. At Bloomberg in Beijing, I worked closely with Fielding Chen, Qian Wan, Justin Jimenez, and Arran Scott, benefiting from their deep reserves of expertise, and even deeper reserves of good humor. Stephanie Flanders and Michael McDonough gave me flexibility to pursue a book project at the same time as my day job. At the Wall Street Journal, I was lucky to have Andy Browne as bureau chief, Bob Davis, Liyan Qi, Bill Kazer, Aaron Back, Esther Fung, and Dinny McMahon as collaborators on the economics beat, Duncan Mavin and Carlos Tejada as editors, the opportunity to write for Josh Chin’s China Real Time blog, and research support from Lilian Lin. Working at Stone & McCarthy I benefited from the wisdom of Logan Wright and David Wilder, whose combination of enthusiasm and cynicism proved to be the correct attitude to sustain eleven years covering China’s economy.
Everyone who follows the Chinese economy has benefited from the perceptive work and contrasting views of Nicholas Lardy and Barry Naughton. Their analytic chronicles of the reform era are required reading for all students of China, and significantly informed my thinking—as well as providing material for some of the historical sections of this book. Jason Bedford has dived deeper into the weeds of China’s financial sector than most, and was generous enough to share some of his thinking. I learned from Jamie Rush and Chang Shu’s work on the impact of a China crisis on the rest of the world, David Qu’s expertise on China’s approach to financial stability, and Dan Hanson’s analysis on the impact of the trade war.
The International Monetary Fund does excellent work on China; I’ve benefited from reading a lot of it, and from speaking with some of the authors. Conversations with officials at the People’s Bank of China, China Banking Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, Chinese Academy of Social Science, and National Bureau of Statistics, gave me a window into the official perspective. Travel up and down the country, and meetings with local officials, bankers, businessmen, real estate developers, factory workers, and farmers added color and realism.
Weiyi Qiu provided professional research assistance, and Cecilia Chang contributed to sections on debt at state-owned enterprises. David Pervin at Oxford University Press gave wise counsel on the process and, together with Macey Fairchild, insightful comments on the draft. Bob Davis and Nicholas Lardy read through the near-final manuscript, saved me from some embarrassing errors, and made valuable suggestions that strengthened the text at key points. Damien Ma provided valuable feedback on the final chapter. This book would not have been possible without Zhang Ayi, who looked after our three children when my wife and I were working. My daughter Josephine wouldn’t forgive me if I didn’t acknowledge that she typed out the title.
I’d like to thank my father, Christopher Orlik, without whose constant questioning about when I was going to write another book I might never have written another book. I’d also like to thank my mother, Judith Moore, for never asking me if I was going to write another book, and refer my father to that as a model for future conduct. Finally, my biggest debt is to my wife, Helena, who knows far more about what’s going on in China than I do, but has yet to be persuaded to write any of it down.

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